[ Federal award intelligence ]
The edge is sitting in the public record.
Every federal contract award is published. Almost nobody reads them in time. Arcthane reads all of them — every award, solicitation, subcontract, and budget line — and scores the handful that will move a stock.
6,797 realized outcomes on the public record · re-scored every 2 hours · research, not advice
What a signal looks like
$7.8B sustainment award — 6.4% of market cap. Scored within hours of the award posting, days before coverage.
Fig. 01 — a signal, as your feed renders it
The mechanism
Three moves, repeated every two hours.
Ingest
The entire public exhaust of federal money: awards, solicitations, subcontracts, budget lines, filings, approvals. Millions of documents. No manual curation.
Score
Materiality against market cap and revenue. History of what similar awards did to similar stocks. The macro regime it lands in. One number, 0–100.
Time
Same-day reads get flagged fresh. Late reads get flagged honestly — a signal that says "likely priced in" is the one that saves you money.
Signal taxonomy
Five ways the future leaks.
Most tools show you the news. The news is the last step of a chain that starts months earlier — in budgets, expiring contracts, and filings. Arcthane labels every signal by where in the chain it was caught.
The award is signed. Public record, same-day read.
The contract expires soon. We name the likely winner — before the announcement exists.
The money is appropriated before it is spent. We follow it to the incumbents.
The company said it first. We verify it against the record.
The tape already believes it. We tell you when the edge has faded.
File — track record
The model knows when it doesn't know.
Across 1,465 realized contract outcomes, signals scoring 72+ beat their sector by +3.0% median over the following 60 trading days, with a 58% hit rate. Everything the model scores lower underperforms — which is exactly what a working score looks like.
We publish the losing buckets too. A track record you can't audit is marketing; this one updates from live data every hour.
Open the full record →| Score | Median α (60d) | Hit rate | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72+ | +2.96% | 58% | 489 |
| <45 | -7.46% | 35% | 470 |
| 60-71 | -8.14% | 38% | 337 |
| 45-59 | -8.73% | 29% | 165 |
α = return minus sector ETF · live data, revalidated hourly
Two ways in. Same record.
For the curious
The full live feed, watchlists, and alerts. For people who follow defense and infra stocks because it's genuinely fun to know first.
Pulse →For professionals
The Terminal: component-level score breakdowns, the macro regime layer, extended history, portfolio analytics, and a priority line.
Terminal →The record is public.
The reading isn't.
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